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The twenty imports China is best placed to replace.

China imported USD 986bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 3.4tn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well, with how concentrated the supply of each is.

USD 28bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
33products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
2675products China already exports well
2431product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing China already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in China would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and China does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive screens: of organic light-emitting diodes...HS 852412

    Comes fromSouth Korea 90%, 23 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.4bn
    Countries that export it well2

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 2.3bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 11 per cent (2); South Korea supplies 90 per cent (2).

    USD 2.3bndown 13% on 2022
  2. 2

    Rubber: mixtures of natural and synthetic rubbers of heading no. 4001 and 4002, in primary forms or in plates, sheets...HS 400280

    Comes fromThailand 43%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 13m; 11 more lines in the heading, USD 3.1bn
    Countries that export it well8

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 5.3bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); Thailand supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 5.3bndown 3% on 2022
  3. 3

    Cyclic hydrocarbons: p-xyleneHS 290243

    Comes fromSouth Korea 42%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthChemical elements: doped for use in electronics, in the form of... (exports USD 4.0bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 161k; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 5.3bn
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 8.8bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 50 per cent (1); South Korea supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 8.8bndown 22% on 2022
  4. 4

    Optical elements: polarising material, sheets and plates thereofHS 900120

    Comes fromSouth Korea 43%, 26 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 359m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 474m
    Countries that export it well3

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 2.9bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 39 per cent (1); South Korea supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 2.9bndown 22% on 2022
  5. 5

    Machines and apparatus of a kind used solely or principally for the manufacture of flat panel displaysHS 848630

    Comes fromJapan 55%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 146m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 43bn
    Countries that export it well3

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 2.3bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 39 per cent (1); Japan supplies 55 per cent (1).

    USD 2.3bndown 32% on 2022
  6. 6

    Cases and containers: handbags (whether or not with shoulder strap and including those without handle), with outer...HS 420221

    Comes fromFrance 53%, 89 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCases and containers: handbags (whether or not with shoulder strap... (exports USD 5.7bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.1bn
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 1.8bn, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); France supplies 53 per cent (1).

    USD 1.8bnup 4% on 2022
  7. 7

    Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of uncombed fibres, 85% or more by weight of cotton, less than 714.29 but...HS 520512

    Comes fromVietnam 48%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFabrics: knitted or crocheted fabrics, other than those of headings... (exports USD 2.0bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 37m; 8 more lines in the heading, USD 1.7bn
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 45 per cent (1); Vietnam supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 1.4bndown 15% on 2022
  8. 8

    Copper: foil, not backed, of a thickness not exceeding 0.15mm, of refined copperHS 741011

    Comes fromTaiwan 51%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 484m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 224m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 50 per cent (1); Taiwan supplies 51 per cent (1).

    USD 1.4bndown 15% on 2022
  9. 9

    Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive), of cellulose acetate, non-cellular and not...HS 392073

    Comes fromJapan 69%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 73m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 24m
    Countries that export it well5

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 530m, top 11 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); Japan supplies 69 per cent (2).

    USD 530mup 22% on 2022
  10. 10

    Rubber: vulcanised, thread and cordHS 400700

    Comes fromThailand 79%, 33 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 65m
    Countries that export it well4

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 261m, top 20 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); Thailand supplies 79 per cent (2).

    USD 261mdown 18% on 2022
  11. 11

    Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of combed fibres, less than 85% by weight of cotton, less than 192.31 but...HS 520624

    Comes fromVietnam 83%, 12 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of uncombed fibres, less... (exports USD 47m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 11m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 232m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 64m, top 48 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); Vietnam supplies 83 per cent (2).

    USD 64mup 58% on 2022
  12. 12

    Machines: parts and accessories of machines of heading no. 8447 or auxiliary machinery, sinkers, needles and other...HS 844851

    Comes fromSingapore 52%, 26 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 67m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 109m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 273m, top 19 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); Singapore supplies 52 per cent (1).

    USD 273mdown 9% on 2022
  13. 13

    Photographic film: in rolls, sensitised, unexposed, without sprocket holes, of a width exceeding 105mm but not...HS 370244

    Comes fromJapan 67%, 12 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 14m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 476m
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 97m, top 39 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); Japan supplies 67 per cent (2).

    USD 97mup 26% on 2022
  14. 14

    Watch movements: complete and assembled, electrically operated, with mechanical display only or with a device to which...HS 910811

    Comes fromJapan 67%, 12 source countries
    Nearest export strengthClocks: (excluding those with watch movements and instrument panel... (exports USD 349m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 50m
    Countries that export it well4

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 76m, top 44 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); Japan supplies 67 per cent (2).

    USD 76mup 7% on 2022
  15. 15

    Shawls, scarves, mufflers, mantillas, veils and the like: of silk or silk waste (not knitted or crocheted)HS 621410

    Comes fromFrance 77%, 49 source countries
    Nearest export strengthHandkerchiefs: of textile materials other than cotton (not knitted... (exports USD 37m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 46m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 179m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 69m, top 46 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 50 per cent (1); France supplies 77 per cent (2).

    USD 69mdown 10% on 2022
  16. 16

    Yarn: of jute or of other textile bast fibres, singleHS 530710

    Comes fromBangladesh 100%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 876k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 19m
    Countries that export it well3

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 69m, top 46 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); Bangladesh supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 69mdown 39% on 2022
  17. 17

    Musical instruments: pianos, upright, including automatic pianosHS 920110

    Comes fromJapan 78%, 23 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMusical instruments: parts and accessories for pianos (exports USD 22m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 33m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 62m
    Countries that export it well7

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 59m, top 50 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); Japan supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 59mdown 56% on 2022
  18. 18

    Lathes: for removing metal, numerically controlled, other than horizontal lathesHS 845891

    Comes fromTaiwan 43%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMachine-tools: sawing or cutting-off machines, working by removing... (exports USD 301m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 132m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 191m, top 25 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); Taiwan supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 191mup 16% on 2022
  19. 19

    Tanned or crust hides and skins: of swine, without hair on, whether or not split, but not further prepared, in the wet...HS 410631

    Comes fromThailand 78%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 11m
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 54m, top 52 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); Thailand supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 54mup 26% on 2022
  20. 20

    Cyanides and cyanide oxides: other than of sodiumHS 283719

    Comes fromSouth Korea 80%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone named
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Countries that export it well8

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 12m, top 94 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); South Korea supplies 80 per cent (2).

    USD 12mup 10% on 2022

The bill and its path, the sources and their unit values, who exports the line well, the nearest strengths, the public buyers where a country publishes them, and the method. We reply by email. Privacy

One line per customs heading. Products China already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive... imports USD 30bn, exports USD 11bn, top source Vietnam 75%
  • Electronic integrated circuits: n.e.c. in heading no. 8542 imports USD 58bn, exports USD 49bn, top source Taiwan 69%
  • Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive... imports USD 6.8bn, exports USD 5.4bn, top source Taiwan 61%
  • Compounds, inorganic or organic (excluding cerium), of rare-earth metals, of... imports USD 1.4bn, exports USD 381m, top source Myanmar 60%
  • Glass: drawn and blown, in sheets, (other than glass coloured throughout the... imports USD 1.1bn, exports USD 340m, top source Hong Kong 61%
  • Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive), of... imports USD 1.9bn, exports USD 1.2bn, top source Japan 60%
  • Electrical capacitors: fixed, ceramic dielectric, multilayer imports USD 4.5bn, exports USD 3.8bn, top source Japan 45%
  • Human hair, dressed, thinned, bleached or otherwise worked: wool or other... imports USD 660m, exports USD 247m, top source India 72%
  • Salts of oxometallic or peroxometallic acids: n.e.c. in heading no. 2841 imports USD 1.9bn, exports USD 1.5bn, top source South Korea 95%
  • Copper: foil, backed with paper, paperboard, plastics or similar backing... imports USD 992m, exports USD 653m, top source Taiwan 48%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 2431 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-03. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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